Uncertainty Evaluations Improve Biogeochemical Simulations

Simulations for very early lifecycle quality evaluations

Chung et al. have proposed a graphical model that captures the interdependencies between design alternatives in terms of synergy and trade-offs. This model can assist in identifying quality/risk trade-offs early in the lifecycle of software development, such as architectural design and testing process choices. The Chung et al. method is an analysis framework only: their technique does not inclu...

Hybrid Numerical Methods for Multiscale Simulations of Subsurface Biogeochemical Processes

Many subsurface flow and transport problems of importance today involve coupled non-linear flow, transport, and reaction in media exhibiting complex heterogeneity. In particular, problems involving biological mediation of reactions fall into this class of problems. Recent experimental research has revealed important details about the physical, chemical, and biological mechanisms involved in the...

Eastern Mediterranean biogeochemical flux model: simulations of the pelagic ecosystem

Fit-for-purpose analysis of uncertainty using split-sampling evaluations

An uncertainty assessment method for evaluating models, the Sources of UNcertainty GLobal Assessment using Split SamplES (SUNGLASSES), is presented, which assesses predictive uncertainty that is not captured by parameter or other input uncertainties. The method uses the split sample approach to generate a quantitative estimate of the fit-for-purpose of the model, thus focusing on the purpose fo...

Seductive Simulations? Uncertainty Distribution Around Climate Models

This paper discusses the distribution of certainty around General Circulation Models (GCMs) – computer models used to project possible global climatic changes due to human emissions of greenhouse gases. It examines the trope of distance underpinning Donald MacKenzie’s concept of ‘certainty trough’, and calls for a more multi-dimensional and dynamic conceptualization of how uncertainty is distri...